Analysis of the Impact of Global Trade Situation on the Chinese Polyurethane Market (2020 - 2024)

• The global supply chain was disrupted, and downstream production was halted or reduced. Thanks to effective prevention and control measures in China, its supply chain recovered first, and production orders flowed back, leading to an increase in the demand for the PU market. The Chinese rigid foam index fluctuated widely, showing a significant upward trend in the second half of the year.
  In 2021, overseas plants faced disruptions and domestic demand shifted.
• The cold wave in North America and disruptions to the supply chain led to frequent force majeure incidents at overseas MDI plants.
• People's consumption concepts began to change. In China, the growing awareness of consuming fresh food and healthy home products drove the relatively rapid growth of the cold chain construction and the formaldehyde - free board industry.
• The Chinese rigid foam index soared, then fell back and fluctuated.
  In 2022, the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the reduction of domestic demand.
• The Russia - Ukraine conflict pushed up European energy prices, causing local plants to reduce or halt production.
• Polymeric MDI manufacturers in the Asia - Pacific region saw a significant increase (+70.5%) in exports to Russia.
• Some downstream orders in China flowed overseas, and the consumption of rigid foam in China decreased year - on - year.
• The Chinese rigid foam index was under pressure and fluctuated downward.
  In 2023, domestic demand recovered and companies actively expanded overseas.
• Insulation construction projects resumed work, and the rapid rise of fresh food e - commerce retail jointly drove an increase in the consumption of rigid foam for cold chain storage and transportation.
• The growth rates of the home appliance and formaldehyde - free board industries in China were more prominent.
• Home appliance and automotive enterprises actively expanded overseas.
• The fluctuation range of the Chinese rigid foam index narrowed.
  In 2024, the growth rate slowed down and there were tariff expectations.
• The growth rate of rigid foam consumption in China slowed down. Although the growth rates of home appliances and cold boxes were acceptable, the construction industry was dragged down by engineering construction and product degradation issues.
• With the anticipation of an intensification of the international situation, downstream rigid foam enterprises took precautions and reduced their business exposure in the US market in advance.
• The Chinese rigid foam index performed stronger than expected in the second half of the year.

Analysis of the Impact of Global Trade Situation on the Chinese Polyurethane Market (January - April 2025)

• China's exports of polymeric MDI to the US accounted for 22% of its total exports.
• On February 12, 2025, the US launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese MDI.
• On March 4, the US imposed a 20% tariff on all Chinese products.
• On April 3, the US announced an additional 34% reciprocal tariff on China, and on April 8, this reciprocal tariff rate increased to 84%. On April 10, China announced that the reciprocal tariff on products originating from the US would be increased from 34% to 84%.
• The total tariff rate for China's exports of polymeric MDI to the US reached 135.5% (=6.5% + 25% + 20% + 84%).
• Since April 21, the Chinese polymeric MDI market has rebounded. On April 24, the price of Shanghai - sourced products in East China was 15,200 yuan/ton, and that of Wanhua products was 15,500 yuan/ton, having returned to the market level on April 10.
  Downstream enterprises are cautiously waiting and watching, and the price of polyether is under pressure and dropping:
• China's exports of polyether to the US accounted for 3% of its total exports.
• On March 4, the US imposed a 20% tariff on all Chinese products, and on April 3, it announced an additional 34% reciprocal tariff on China. However, polyether was on the exemption list.
• The total tariff rate for China's exports of polyether to the US was 51.5% $(=6.5\%+25\%+20\%)$.
• In April, the decline rate of the Chinese polyether market accelerated. The main reason was that downstream enterprises of polyether, affected by the news of tariff policies, mostly adopted a cautious wait - and - see attitude, reducing production and procurement of raw materials such as polyether.
• On Tuesday, April 22 (local time), US President Trump stated in a public speech that he recognized that the current tariffs on Chinese export products were too high and expected a significant reduction in the tariff rate. This marked a softening of Trump's stance on his signature tariff policy.

Price Trends of the Polymeric MDI and Rigid Polyether Markets in East China from January to April 2025 (yuan/ton)

Company Brands

• Founded in 2005.
• Focuses on reporting the polyurethane market trends in China and serves Chinese customers.
• Boasts a strong team of analysts with in - depth expertise in the polyurethane industry.
• Possesses basic data of the polyurethane and related industrial chains, and tracks market trends and manufacturer dynamics on a daily basis.
• Is a comprehensive Chinese - language media platform for the polyurethane industry.
  
  PUdaily (A Brand of Suntower)
• Founded in 2007.
• Focuses on reporting the polyurethane market trends in China and overseas, serving global customers.
• Has a mature overseas analyst team, focusing on key overseas markets (Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, India, Europe, the Americas, etc.).
• Is an English - language platform that comprehensively covers the global polyurethane industry trends.
  
  Santao Consulting
• Provides one - on - one customer service to meet customized needs of customers, serving domestic and foreign clients.
• Has technical experts and consulting teams in key chemical industries, as well as a unique overseas consulting team.
• Is a long - term consulting partner of benchmark enterprises such as BASF, Huntsman, and Wanhua Chemical.